The signals are mixed.
Job growth remains strong, and freight flows where decline is a leading indicator of recession. But gas prices are at all-time highs. There is a war in Europe for the first time in more than 50 years. And inflation is strong and persistent for the first time in 40 years. Rising rates are cooling the housing market. The fact remains that eight of the last nine times the Federal Reserve raised rates to combat inflation, it resulted in a recession.